Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan for 2025-2028 forecasts

The Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan for 2025-2028 foresees a sharp rise in GDP, significant primary surpluses, and a drop in unemployment to pre-crisis levels, according to the presentation by National Economy & Finance Minister Costis Hatzidakis and Deputy Minister Thanos Petralias on Monday.

At a press conference following the Plan's presentation at the cabinet meeting, the ministers presented the basic points, with Hatzidakis adding that under the plan the government will achieve "fiscal stability with a reduction of debt, development, and an increase in wages."

The plan is being tabled in Parliament for its first reading in committee on Friday, in the presence of the Bank of Greece and the Hellenic Fiscal Council. The final plan will be sent to the European Commission for approval by Ecofin meeting on November 28.

Some of the plan's key points include the following:
- Public debt: it will shrink for the current 153.% of GDP to 133.4% of GDP in 2028.
- Fiscal deficit (based on the cap of 3% of GDP): it will shrink from 1% of GDP this year to 0.6% of GDP in 2025, 0.8% of GDP in 2026, 1.1% of GDP in 2027, and 1.2% of GDP in 2028.
- Bugdet primary surplus: from 2.4% of GDP this year (against the initial forecast of 2.1% of GDP), it will reach 2.5% of GDP in 2025, and 2.4% of GDP in each of the future years.
- Nominal GDP: from 232 billion euros, it will reach 242 billion euros in 2025, 253 billion euros in 2026, 263 billion in 2027, and 272 bilion euros in 2028. Hatzidakis said these are conservative assessments, as the European Commission does not incude inflows from the Recovery Fund and NSRF.
- Minimum wage: it will increase from 650 euros in 2019 to 950 euros in 2027, and the average wage from 1,046 euros in 2019 to 1,500 euros in 2027.
- Unemployment: it will drop from 10.5% this year to 9.7% in 2025, 9.2% to 2026, 8,7% in 2027, and 8.5% in 2028.

Hatzidakis said the Medium-Term Plan includes eight basic infrastructural interventions for demographics, the housing problem, facing repercussions of the climate crisis, boosting the health system, upgrading the education system, boosting entrepreneurship, and the review of expenditures for more effective distribution.

Since the Medium-Term Plans for EU member states focus on limiting primary net expenditures - not the  primary surpluses - there has been an agreement with the Commission, following better fiscal returns this year, for another 700 million euros in 2025 and a total of 4 billion euros for four years. This creates greater flexibility for expenditures related to pensions, operational costs, and national defense, Hatzidakis said.
 

 
 
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